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Santa Rosa City Council Election: GoLocal Prediction Market

By: Terry Garrett

Oct. 25, 2010

Santa Rosa City Council Election: GoLocal Prediction Market

GoLocal has created a prediction market for the Santa Rosa City Council election.  It's open to the public.  Click here to participate.

How it works

The prediction market works like this: you set up a free user account (about a minute), then buy a 'answer' stock, yes or no, for a candidate running for City Council.  Don't worry, it's not real money, we're giving you play money to buy stock in your answer.  This is a chance to express your opinion and declare your degree of confidence in your opinion.  Plus you can sell your answer stock and buy another all the way up to close of market on November 2nd at 9 a.m..  GoLocal is the market-maker, so we automatically buy your stock when you sell it.  Once you set up your user account, there is a great tutorial on the prediction market site about how it works.

Prediction markets have been around for quite awhile, the first being the Iowa State prediction market for elections.  They tend to be more accurate than opinion polling, since participants are declaring a confidence of opinion, and you can change your opinion throughout the life of the market.

Also, it's just dang fun.  Remember to vote on November 2.  Play the market now and see how well you did in your predictions.

Comments (1)


Since Santa Rosa began to change in ways I feel
are bad and started going way into debt long before
the crash---I hope for changes. I see the City Council
all over as not doing a good job.
Therefore, in hard times, please move to change the
Council. Many now on Council have ideologies that
look pretty or modern. Alas, they do not carry out the
responsibility to City. Just can not do jobs right.
So many areas look wrong to me--I can hardly outline.
However for more than 15 years--govt keeps acting
as though streets do not matter. Keeps blocking streets
narrowing streets, restricting use of streets, causi ng
extra flow onto streets (and pretending to help by just
encouraging traffic from one part toward another).
Alas. Santa Rosa never had enough large, long wide
streets for its growth. We need to stop sacrficing road
capacity. Most cities in USA face these problems in
growth. But here the whole area was laid out wrong
partly because of a creek through it(?)
Large Utopian plans to rebuild the City are risky.
Under foul ecopnomy, hard to carry out enough
to justify tinkering that stops. But if anything goes
wrong (everything in government and life is an
Experiment) very nearly impossible to get more money
from anywhere to change out of any plan. So everyone
chafes and suffers for eighty years or more if bad moves
n o w. I only see one candidate thinking of one tiny change to unblock 4th St a little...Now the fever is on to
mess around with S to North streets the way W to East
was really hurt. Yet look at how little was ever done to
help when Third St become so overburdened. For many
a weary year.--All that traffic forced into 3d.--
Truly, J A.

posted by John Andrews on 10/30/10 @ 01:51 p.m.

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